A leaked intelligence assessment is raising new questions about President Donald Trump’s escalating military campaign against Iran.
According to reporting cited by the Washington Post, a classified report from the National Intelligence Council warned that the conflict may not achieve one of the administration’s biggest goals.
An X post discussing the leak quickly gained traction online as critics and supporters debated whether the war could spiral into a wider regional conflict.
The report, completed just days before the U.S. launched strikes alongside Israel, suggested regime change in Iran is unlikely.
The military operation killed longtime Iranian leader Ali Khamenei, triggering retaliatory attacks across the Middle East.
Iran responded by targeting American bases and allies throughout the Gulf Cooperation Council region.
Despite the escalation, intelligence officials reportedly concluded that Iran’s government structure is designed to survive leadership losses.
Sources familiar with the report told the Washington Post that the regime has established protocols to preserve control even after the death of a supreme leader.
That means opposition groups inside Iran are unlikely to seize power quickly.
The question of who will replace Khamenei remains unresolved.
Iran’s Assembly of Experts and senior members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are now responsible for selecting the country’s next supreme leader.
Some analysts believe Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, could emerge as the successor, per the Daily Mail.
Trump has previously dismissed Mojtaba Khamenei as “incompetent” and called him a “lightweight.”
The White House has continued to defend the military operation despite the leaked intelligence warning.
Officials say the primary goal is not necessarily regime change but destroying Iran’s military capabilities and preventing the country from developing nuclear weapons.
A statement from the administration said the operation is focused on eliminating Iran’s ballistic missile production and weakening its ability to arm proxy groups across the region.
Trump himself has projected confidence that the campaign will significantly weaken Iran.
In a recent interview, the president said the United States will play a role in shaping the country’s future leadership.
“We want them to have a good leader,” Trump said.
The president also suggested that negotiations could happen once Iran’s military capabilities are crippled.
“I’m going to have a big impact, or they’re not going to have any settlement,” Trump said.
Meanwhile, Iranian leaders have rejected Trump’s demands for unconditional surrender.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf posted a defiant message on X rejecting outside interference in Iran’s political future.
“The fate of dear Iran will be determined solely by the proud Iranian nation,” he wrote.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also addressed the growing regional conflict.
In a video message, he apologized to neighboring Gulf countries after Iranian missile and drone strikes hit targets across the region.
However, Pezeshkian made clear the apology was not a sign of surrender.
He warned that Iran’s enemies should abandon any hope that the country will submit to foreign pressure.
As the war intensifies, the conflict has already spread far beyond Iran’s borders.
Missile strikes and drone attacks have been reported in cities including Dubai, Manama, and near Riyadh.
Airspace disruptions across the Middle East have also forced temporary airport closures and disrupted international travel.
Despite the warnings from intelligence officials, the Trump administration continues to insist the campaign is weakening Iran’s regime.
