President Donald Trump could face new legislative turbulence as Republicans cling to a razor-thin House majority and a Florida lawmaker weighs an early exit.
Rep. Neal Dunn (R-FL), 72, already announced he will not seek reelection in 2026.
Now, reports suggest he may retire before his term ends in January 2027, potentially tightening the GOP’s grip on the chamber even further.
Republicans currently hold 218 seats to Democrats’ 214, leaving House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) with almost no margin for error.
Under House rules, Republicans can afford to lose only one member on a party-line vote. A tie vote fails.
If Dunn were to step down early, the Republican conference would temporarily lose its functional majority unless Democrats crossed the aisle to help pass legislation.
That scenario would complicate efforts to advance Trump’s policy priorities, particularly large budget or immigration measures that rely on party unity.
Johnson has already struggled to pass legislation without keeping votes open for hours to secure every Republican’s support. The tight margin has led to some of the longest procedural votes in modern House history.
When asked about his future, Dunn declined to clarify his plans. “No comment,” he told Politico this week.
Speculation about his health has circulated after he was seen wearing a face mask on Capitol Hill. When pressed, Dunn responded, “Don’t I look good?”
Johnson publicly praised Dunn and encouraged him to remain in office through the end of his term.
“Neal Dunn is a beloved member of Congress and a great man,” Johnson said. “I’ve encouraged him to stay and be a part of this.”
An early retirement would trigger a special election in Florida’s 2nd Congressional District, a reliably Republican seat.
One upcoming special election could offset the risk. A March contest for a vacant Republican seat previously held by Marjorie Taylor Greene is expected to favor the GOP, potentially restoring a small cushion.
Still, any gap between Dunn’s departure and a replacement taking office would leave House leadership exposed during critical votes.
Behind the scenes, jockeying for Dunn’s seat has reportedly begun.
Alex Bruesewitz, a longtime Trump ally credited with helping the president connect with younger voters, is said to be considering a run.
Casey DeSantis, wife of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), is also rumored to be eyeing the race, per the Daily Mail.
A contested primary between candidates aligned with Trump and DeSantis could test Republican unity in the district.
For now, House Republicans are focused on keeping their slim advantage intact while advancing the administration’s agenda.
Whether Dunn stays or steps aside early could determine how smoothly the next legislative battles unfold.
With such a narrow majority, even one resignation carries outsized consequences in Washington’s divided government.
