The Trump administration is closing out 2025 with an unprecedented decline in violent crime, officials report, marking what could be the fastest reduction in U.S. murder rates on record.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt pointed to data from the Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI), which aggregates monthly statistics from hundreds of law enforcement agencies nationwide, showing sharp drops in homicides, carjackings and aggravated assaults.
Preliminary RTCI data indicate that between January and October of 2025, the nation recorded just under 6,000 murders—a nearly 20 percent decrease compared to the same period in 2024.
Carjackings fell by approximately 23 percent, while aggravated assaults dropped 8 percent.
Analysts note that while the final FBI figures are pending, RTCI estimates historically track within 1–2 percent of federal totals, providing a reliable early measure of crime trends.
Crime reductions were most pronounced in cities that faced high homicide rates in prior years. Birmingham, Alabama, experienced a 49 percent decline, while Baltimore’s murders fell nearly 31 percent.
Other major cities reporting substantial decreases included Chicago (28.8 percent), Atlanta (26.3 percent), New York City (20.9 percent) and Philadelphia (15.8 percent.)
Several cities, including Milwaukee, Los Angeles and Kansas City, did see modest increases in homicides, highlighting uneven trends across urban areas, Newsweek reports.
Administration officials credited the reductions to a combination of federal and local initiatives emphasizing law enforcement support and immigration enforcement.
Leavitt, sharing the data on social media, emphasized the administration’s role in restoring public safety nationwide.
“President Trump is restoring Law and Order in America,” she wrote.
FBI Director Kash Patel underscored the broader significance of the decline, describing it as evidence that targeted policies to reduce violent crime are producing measurable results.
“Lives are being saved every day under this administration, thanks to coordinated efforts with local partners,” Patel wrote.
Technology leaders and public commentators have also weighed in, citing the reductions as validation of aggressive crime-prevention strategies.
Elon Musk tweeted that removing dangerous criminals from streets contributes directly to safer communities, reflecting public support for policies prioritizing citizen protection.
Analysts caution that while these preliminary figures are historic, final federal reports may adjust totals slightly.
Yet even accounting for potential revisions, the downward trend represents a stark contrast to pandemic-era spikes, suggesting sustained improvements in national safety.
Cities such as New Orleans, Detroit, Oakland and San Francisco are on track for the lowest murder totals recorded in decades, illustrating a broad-based decline across diverse urban environments.
Experts attribute the success to a combination of federal oversight, targeted enforcement in high-risk areas, and continued collaboration with local law enforcement.
While challenges remain in certain regions, officials argue that the 2025 data demonstrate a pivotal turnaround in violent crime trends, offering a blueprint for long-term public safety strategies.
As the year concludes, the administration emphasizes that continued vigilance and policy support are essential to maintaining these historic gains.
The RTCI trends signal potential for further reductions in violent crime, reinforcing claims that strategic federal intervention, combined with empowered local policing, can produce lasting results.
