A new poll from the National Catholic Reporter shows former President Donald Trump holding a five-point lead over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris among Catholic voters in key swing states. The poll, conducted across Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, reveals Trump leading Harris 50% to 45% among Catholic voters likely to cast their ballots.
Trump’s strongest performances among Catholics are in Wisconsin, where he holds a commanding 57% to 39% lead, and Michigan, where he leads 54% to 41%. Harris has narrow leads over Trump in Nevada (50% to 45%) and Pennsylvania (50% to 48%).
Swing-state Catholic voters were more likely to say they support their preferred candidate for reasons that go against church teaching, with Trump supporters favoring his anti-immigration policies and Harris voters backing her views on reproductive rights. Catholic teaching generally favors immigrant rights and opposes abortion.
In the battleground states, Catholic populations are sizable and are seen as so important to the Trump and Harris campaigns that both have launched efforts to woo the so-called Catholic vote. In Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, for example, approximately one-quarter of adults identify as Catholic.
The former President also leads overall among Catholic voters in five of the seven individual states, although some are within the margin of error. The former president does have larger leads in Wisconsin, where he is up by 18 percentage points, and in Michigan, where he leads by 12 points among Catholic voters.
One Wisconsin voter, Jason O’Connell, an insurance worker, said he considers himself a moderate who plans to vote for Trump. “I prefer less government intervention and more of a capitalist economy,” O’Connell said. “I don’t think the government should have their hand in the pot.”
The NCR poll, the first focused exclusively on Catholics in swing states, surveyed 1,172 Catholic voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It was conducted by Mercury Analytics Oct. 3-8. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.86%.
The poll highlights significant demographic divides. Trump has strong support among white Catholics, leading Harris 56% to 39%. Conversely, Harris dominates among Hispanic Catholics, leading Trump by a wide margin of 67% to 28%, and over three-quarters of Black Catholics favor Harris.
The economy was the top issue for Catholic voters, with 26% listing it as their primary concern. Immigration and border security followed at 20%, and abortion and reproductive rights were cited by 13%.
Older Catholic voters, especially those over 65, tend to favor Trump (50% to 46%), with those in the 50 to 64 age range strongly supporting him (54% to 43%). Among voters aged 30 to 49, Trump still leads but by a smaller margin, 49% to 45%.
The NCR poll was conducted Oct. 3-8 and included 1,172 Catholic voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It has a margin of error is 2.86 percentage points.
Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after resisting calls from within his own party for weeks to end his reelection bid in the wake of his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her in a virtual roll call prior to the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris tapped Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen.
JD Vance as his pick for vice president. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on Sept. 10 from Philadelphia. Harris’ rise in polls is coupled with an increase in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which has nearly doubled since Harris’ entrance into the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has stayed stagnant at 71%, according to a Monmouth University poll released Aug. 14.
