A new poll reveals a dramatic shift in New York City’s mayoral race, showing former Governor Andrew Cuomo within striking distance of Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani if Republican Curtis Sliwa exits the contest.
The survey, conducted by Gotham Polling and the city AARP, found that 44.6 percent of New Yorkers would support Mamdani in a two-way race against Cuomo, who would capture 40.7 percent of the vote.
The poll’s 4-point margin of error places the former governor in the competitive range of the frontrunner.
With all three candidates remaining in the race, Mamdani maintains a commanding lead with 43.2 percent support.
Cuomo trails significantly at 28.9 percent, while Sliwa garners 19.4 percent of likely voters.
The poll surveyed 1,040 likely voters over a two-day period last week.
The findings suggest that older voters may ultimately decide the election’s outcome.
The New York Post reported that according to the survey, 78 percent of undecided city voters are age 50 or older.
This demographic could prove pivotal for Cuomo’s chances, as younger New Yorkers continue to favor Mamdani.
Stephen Graves, president of Gotham Polling & Analytics, emphasized the importance of this voting bloc.
“The decisive factor in this race may be the older voters who haven’t yet made up their minds,” Graves said.
“If the contest narrows to two leading candidates, the 50-plus electorate—by far the most reliable voting bloc—will likely determine who becomes the next mayor of New York City.”
The poll utilized 2021 general election demographics, which showed just under 40 percent of voters were under 50 years old. However, this model may underestimate Mamdani’s support, as his campaign has registered tens of thousands of new young voters, potentially creating an even split in turnout between younger and older demographics.
Both Sliwa and Cuomo have stated repeatedly that they will not withdraw from the race.
Cuomo is running as an independent after losing to Mamdani in the Democratic Party primary.
Economic concerns dominate the minds of New York voters across all age groups.
The cost of living ranked as the top issue for 63.6 percent of those polled, followed by public safety at 48.6 percent and housing affordability at 38.9 percent.
The political ideology of poll respondents skews liberal, with nearly 43 percent identifying as either very liberal or somewhat liberal.
Just over 23 percent identified as somewhat or very conservative, the Post highlighted.
Mamdani, a 33-year-old state assemblyman from Queens, shocked political observers when he won the Democratic primary in June, defeating both Cuomo and outgoing Mayor Eric Adams.
Adams has since exited the race.
The self-described socialist was born in Uganda before immigrating to New York City.
He is Muslim and has drawn scrutiny from city political circles and members of the Jewish community over his criticism of Israel and refusal to condemn Hamas.
Cuomo, 67, served as governor and also held the position of HUD secretary.
During the first of two mayoral debates last week, he attacked Mamdani’s lack of executive experience.
On Sunday, Cuomo appeared on WABC 770 AM’s “The Cats Roundtable” radio show, where he labeled Sliwa a spoiler candidate.
“The problem is Curtis Sliwa is a spoiler in the race,” the former Democratic governor said, per reporting from the Post.
“A vote for Curtis Sliwa is really a vote for Mamdani.”
Sliwa, 71, founded the vigilante group Guardian Angels and previously worked as a radio talk show host.
He has run for mayor in the past.
During last week’s debate, Sliwa countered Cuomo’s argument by suggesting the former governor should be the one to drop out.
Beth Finkel, AARP New York State Director, noted the continuing influence of older voters in city elections.
“Once again, New York’s older voters are poised to decide this election,” Finkel said.
“These are issues that matter not only to older adults and to New Yorkers of every generation.”
The Gotham/AARP poll indicates that New York’s more mature voters will likely cast the deciding ballots in November.
