A polling firm widely regarded as the most accurate in the business has dropped a result that is turning heads inside the Democratic Party — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sits atop the 2028 presidential primary field.
The survey, released by AtlasIntel, marks the first time the New York congresswoman has led any published poll measuring the Democratic presidential primary.
She drew support from 26 percent of respondents.
Pete Buttigieg, who served as Transportation Secretary under President Biden, landed in second at 22.4 percent.
California’s governor, Gavin Newsom, finished third with 21.2 percent of the vote.
Kamala Harris, the former vice president who lost the 2024 presidential race to Donald Trump, came in fourth at 12.9 percent.
Every other potential candidate in the field failed to crack double digits.
AtlasIntel is no fringe operation. Nate Silver, the statistician who built his reputation on election forecasting, rated the firm the single most accurate pollster of the 2024 election cycle.
The company had previously earned the same distinction for its work during the 2020 race, according to the polling aggregator 538.
The survey covered 2,069 American adults between May 4 and May 7, 2025, and carries a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.
The 2028 race has not formally begun, but it is already moving.
Prospective candidates on the Democratic side have begun traveling to early primary states, road-testing their political messaging, and working to establish name recognition with voters well ahead of the anticipated campaign launch window — which observers expect could open following the 2026 midterm elections.
For candidates operating in this pre-campaign environment, polling numbers function as currency. Strong early figures attract donor money, unlock media coverage, and signal viability to party insiders.
Ocasio-Cortez has not declared a presidential campaign. Asked directly about her future ambitions in a conversation with David Axelrod — formerly a senior strategist for President Barack Obama — she described her motivations in terms of policy rather than office.
“My ambition is to change this country,” she said. “Presidents come and go. Senate, House seats, elected officials come and go. But single-payer healthcare is forever. A living wage is forever, workers’ rights are forever, women’s rights, all of that, and so anyways…to a finer point to your question is that when you aren’t attached, right, when you haven’t been like fantasizing about being this or that since the time you were 7 years old, um, it is tremendously liberating.”
Beyond the White House, Ocasio-Cortez has been floated as a potential Senate candidate. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer faces reelection, and some on the left have urged her to enter a primary against him if he opts to seek another term.
Her standing among progressive voters is substantial. Supporters view her as the most credible left-wing vehicle for recapturing the presidency in 2028. She has demonstrated a particular capacity to generate enthusiasm among younger voters — a demographic Harris struggled to turn out against Trump in 2024.
However, a portion of the Democratic establishment has expressed concern that her positions could prove difficult to sell to the swing voters who decide general elections.
That debate echoes arguments made after the 2024 loss, when some Democrats concluded that Harris fell short in part because voters viewed her as ideologically out of step with the political center.
Ocasio-Cortez also recently found herself at odds with fellow progressives after declining to work with former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene on policy related to Gaza. She said publicly that she does not trust Greene, describing her as a “proven bigot and antisemite.”
Real-money prediction markets, which aggregate trader wagers into probability estimates, assign Ocasio-Cortez significantly lower odds than the AtlasIntel poll might suggest.
On Kalshi, Newsom leads all Democratic contenders at 25 percent, followed by Harris at 9.1 percent and Ocasio-Cortez at 8.2 percent.
Polymarket shows nearly identical figures: Newsom at 24 percent, Harris at 9 percent, and Ocasio-Cortez at 8 percent.
Other surveys also tell a different story.
A Harvard/Harris poll of 2,745 registered voters, taken April 23–26 with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.87 percentage points, put Harris at 50 percent — a figure that had climbed steadily from 39 percent in January.
Newsom followed at 22 percent, with Shapiro at 9 percent, Ocasio-Cortez at 8 percent, and Pritzker at 6 percent.
A YouGov survey of 2,189 adults conducted April 8–13, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, similarly placed Harris first at 24 percent and Newsom second at 12 percent. Ocasio-Cortez and Buttigieg each registered 9 percent, Sanders drew 7 percent, and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly received 5 percent.
