Chinese government crackdowns on fentanyl production appear to have contributed to a significant decline in overdose deaths across North America, according to new research published in the peer-reviewed academic journal Science on Thursday.
The study documents a 34 percent decrease in overdose deaths from peak levels, representing one of the most substantial reductions in recent history.
Researchers analyzed data from the United States and Canada, examining the correlation between Chinese enforcement actions and declining mortality rates.
The findings suggest a major disruption in the illicit fentanyl supply chain beginning in mid- to late-2023 that continued throughout 2024.
“We suggest there was a major disruption in the illicit fentanyl trade, possibly tied to Chinese government actions, that translated into sharp reductions in overdose mortality beginning in mid- or late-2023 and continued into 2024 across both the US and Canada,” researchers wrote in their published paper.
The Chinese Embassy reported extensive enforcement measures during the relevant time period, according to the Washington Post.
Between October 2023 and August 2025, Chinese authorities shut down 286 companies involved in chemical sales and compelled more than 500 additional companies to remove sales information from their platforms.
Approximately 160,000 advertisements for chemical precursors were removed during this enforcement campaign, according to the embassy’s statement.
Overdose deaths in 2024 fell to their lowest annual level since 2019, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data.
Axios outlined that this reverses an upward trend that emerged during the COVID pandemic, which had resulted in more than 100,000 American deaths in 2023.
Synthetic opioid overdoses specifically claimed approximately 76,000 lives in 2023, the research paper noted.
The study employed multiple data sources to investigate the disruption in fentanyl supply chains.
Researchers examined official government statistics from both the United States and Canada, while also analyzing discussions on the social media platform Reddit to track street-level changes in drug availability and quality.
Purity rates of fentanyl samples and overdose death statistics decreased simultaneously, providing evidence of a supply chain disruption rather than changes in user behavior alone.
The Chinese Embassy stated that enforcement actions were undertaken as part of cooperative efforts with the United States.
“China has been helping the U.S. tackle the fentanyl issue and is willing to continue the cooperation on the basis of equality and mutual respect,” the embassy said.
President Trump has elevated fentanyl enforcement as a central component of his administration’s foreign policy approach, per Axios.
Last month, the President signed an executive order designating illicit fentanyl as a weapon of mass destruction.
The Trump administration has referenced fentanyl concerns in multiple policy areas, including trade negotiations with China and military strikes on vessels suspected of drug trafficking operations.
Government reports indicate that Venezuela does not traffic fentanyl, despite administration citations of the country in relation to drug policy.
The White House issued a statement crediting President Trump’s policies for the decline in overdose deaths.
The statement highlighted efforts to “secure the southern border,” strikes on “narcoterrorist drug boats,” and leveraging Trump’s “dealmaking prowess to stop the influx of fentanyl precursors from China.”
Researchers identified important implications for future drug enforcement strategies.
The findings suggest that effective supply control does not necessarily require extensive street-level arrests of retail dealers.
“That is heartening because street-level enforcement can result in large and racially disproportionate increases in incarceration while at the same time there is little evidence that tougher domestic enforcement, either at the street level or at the wholesale level, can make drugs more expensive or make them harder to acquire,” researchers wrote.
The reduction in fentanyl availability presents an opportunity for expanded prevention and treatment programs, according to the study’s authors.
Researchers characterized the supply disruption as a potential “drought” that could allow for increased intervention efforts while the drug remains less accessible.
