A recent survey of likely New York voters highlights growing challenges for Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) as the 2026 gubernatorial election approaches.
The poll of 1,250 likely voters, conducted with a 2.6 percent margin of error, reflects rising skepticism toward the incumbent and the potential for a competitive matchup against Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY).
In a direct head-to-head scenario, Hochul leads Stefanik 48 percent to 43 percent.
However, when respondents were informed of Hochul’s endorsement of far-left New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, Stefanik narrowly overtook the incumbent, 46.4 percent to 45.9 percent.
Independent voters responded strongly, with 47 percent indicating they would be less likely to support Democratic candidates if Mamdani wins the mayoral race.
The poll also shows limited enthusiasm for Hochul among Democrats.
Only 34 percent said they would definitely vote for her, while 59 percent expressed a preference for new leadership.
In a hypothetical Democratic primary, Hochul’s support falls to 43 percent, trailing former Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado at 14 percent, with 28 percent undecided and 15 percent favoring another candidate, The Western Journal reports.
Pollster Landon Wall of Grayhouse described Hochul’s standing as “historically fragile,” citing weak party support and growing independent dissatisfaction.
He noted that her endorsement of Mamdani, a politically polarizing figure, has undermined her coalition and created opportunities for Republican gains, according to the New York Post.
Stefanik, who has not formally launched her gubernatorial bid, is widely expected to secure the GOP nomination without opposition.
Resist the Mainstream previously reported that Stefanik was previously nominated by President Donald Trump to serve as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, a role she ultimately did not assume after the nomination was withdrawn in March 2025 to maintain Republican strength in the House.
The experience elevated her national profile and positioned her as a prominent GOP figure in New York.
Alex deGrasse, an adviser to Stefanik’s campaign, emphasized that the poll underscores the governor’s vulnerability even before the race officially begins.
Hochul, who assumed office after Andrew Cuomo resigned in 2021, faces criticism over rising living costs, crime rates, bail reform and sanctuary policies.
Republicans argue these issues have weakened her standing in the state.
Stefanik echoed these points, describing Hochul as historically unpopular and blaming her administration for high taxes, utility increases and elevated rent and grocery costs.
She argued that Democratic policies have created widespread dissatisfaction among New Yorkers, setting the stage for a competitive GOP challenge.
Hochul won the 2022 election with 52.9 percent of the vote against Republican Lee Zeldin.
Current voter registration shows 5.86 million Democrats, 2.82 million Republicans, 3.12 million independents and 564,000 members of other parties, highlighting the potential for shifts in voter sentiment in 2026.
The last Republican governor in New York was George Pataki, serving from 1995 to 2006.
Analysts note that Hochul’s weak internal support, coupled with Stefanik’s growing profile and high-profile political experience, makes the upcoming gubernatorial race one of the most closely watched in recent state history.
