A new poll from Emerson College shows former Fox News host Steve Hilton leading California’s 2026 gubernatorial primary field, with former Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco close behind, as a fragmented Democratic field raises the prospect of a general election without a Democrat on the ballot.
The Emerson College poll, conducted between Feb. 13 and 14 among 1,000 likely voters, placed Hilton at the top of the pack with 17 percent support.
U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) and Bianco each came in at 14 percent, placing them in a tie for second.
Former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter followed at 10 percent, while billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer registered nine percent.
A significant portion of the electorate—21 percent—told pollsters they have not yet made up their minds.
The latest results mark a five-point jump for Hilton compared to the December edition of the same poll, in which he did not hold the top position.
Hilton was born in Britain and previously worked as director of strategy for former UK Prime Minister David Cameron, serving in that role from 2005 to 2012.
He relocated to California in 2012 and went on to teach at Stanford University and co-found the political crowdfunding platform Crowdpac.
He also hosted the Fox News program “The Next Revolution” until 2023.
Hilton launched his campaign for California governor in April 2025, centering his bid on affordability issues, with a focus on housing, homelessness, and ending what he has described as the state’s long-standing single-party Democratic dominance.
Among Republican respondents specifically, Hilton edged out Bianco narrowly, drawing 38 percent to the former sheriff’s 37 percent.
Hilton also led all candidates among independent voters, capturing 22 percent of that group.
Within the Democratic Party’s own voter base, no candidate has established a commanding position.
Swalwell led fellow Democrats at 24 percent among party respondents, followed by Porter at 17 percent and Steyer at 15 percent.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that the divided Republican vote and the large pool of undecided independents could have significant consequences in California’s general election given the structure of the state’s primary system.
California uses a nonpartisan blanket primary, often referred to as a “jungle primary,” established by voters through Proposition 14 in 2010.
Under that system, all candidates regardless of party affiliation appear on a single primary ballot.
The primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026.
The two candidates with the highest vote totals on that date advance to the November general election, no matter which party they belong to.
That structure creates the possibility of a same-party general election matchup if one party’s voters consolidate behind a single candidate while the opposing party’s vote is divided among many contenders.
The Democratic field in the race is notably large. Announced candidates include Swalwell, Porter, Steyer, former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa — all of whom received less than five percent of the vote in the most recent Emerson survey.
With more than a dozen Democrats competing for votes, no single Democratic candidate has surpassed 21 percent in recent polling, a trend that has allowed Hilton and Bianco to gain ground despite the Democratic Party’s significant voter registration advantage in California.
Aggregated polling data from RealClearPolling currently shows Hilton and Bianco tied at the top with 15.5 percent each, while Swalwell sits at 12.5 percent.
Several other recent surveys, including an internal poll released by the Becerra campaign, have also shown the two Republicans occupying the top positions in the race.
