Seven states now stand between Republicans and the loss of a Senate they control by a 53-47 margin. The Cook Political Report rates Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas as tossups heading into the November 3 midterm elections.
The 47-seat Democratic bloc includes two independents who align with the party. Voters will fill 35 seats this cycle, including special elections in Florida and Ohio.
Vice President JD Vance casts the deciding vote in a tie, which forces Democrats to pick up a net four seats to claim the majority.
Republicans can lose some races and still keep the gavel, provided they hold their own seats or capture Democratic ones.
Forecasters have not settled on a winner.
Decision Desk HQ’s October 28 model gave Democrats a 58% chance of taking the chamber, with a 51-49 Democratic majority as its central projection.
Le Millénaire put Republican odds of retaining control at 67%.
Texas has become the most surprising entry on the list.
State Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican, is running against Democratic state Representative James Talarico for the seat Senator John Cornyn now holds.
Trump carried Texas comfortably in 2024, and no Democrat has won a Senate race there since 1988, yet current surveys show a tight contest.
Reuters reported that committees aligned with Trump have spent more than $36 million to back Paxton.
In Michigan, Republican Mike Rogers faces Democrat Abdul El Sayed for an open seat. Trump-aligned groups have put roughly $30.1 million behind Rogers, according to Reuters.
Ohio sets Republican Senator Jon Husted against former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, who carries statewide experience into the race.
Republicans are pointing to Ohio’s recent presidential voting record as an edge for Husted, and the same Trump-aligned groups have directed more than $28 million toward his campaign.
Alaska pairs Republican Senator Dan Sullivan with former Democratic Representative Mary Peltola. Republican Ashley Hinson is competing in Iowa, where national forecasters are watching closely.
In Kansas, Republican Senator Roger Marshall is facing a tighter race than his party typically sees there.
Maine’s race features Republican Senator Susan Collins against Democrat Troy Jackson. Collins has drawn support across party lines in the past, though shifting political conditions leave her outcome uncertain.
Republican spending has also reached South Carolina, Nebraska and Mississippi, where party leaders are defending seats.
Democrats, meanwhile, are guarding North Carolina and Georgia, where Senator Jon Ossoff is seeking another term in a state with closely divided recent results.
President Donald Trump has announced that his wider political operation will spend more than $400 million before Election Day, covering advertising, rallies, voter contact and other activities in multiple states.
His flagship super PAC, MAGA Inc., opened September with close to $416 million, federal disclosures show.
Between early September and mid-October, it reported spending nearly $277 million on behalf of Republican candidates.
That total counts transfers to allied committees as well as ads the group bought itself.
Among those transfers, MAGA Inc. sent $200 million to No Going Back PAC and $25 million to Safety and Affordability PAC.
Filings listed more than $164 million still on hand as of October 14. The September and October balances cover different dates, so they cannot be treated as simultaneous cash reserves.
Reuters identified Stephen Wynn, Stephen Schwarzman and Diane Hendricks among the PAC’s prominent donors.
Wynn contributed $8 million in September, and Schwarzman and Hendricks gave $5 million each.
The party committees show a similar pattern.
A Reuters review found that three major Republican committees held about $187 million at the end of September, against roughly $100 million for their Democratic counterparts.
From July through September, Republican committees spent around $137 million on coordinated congressional work, compared with about $55 million from Democratic committees.
The House campaign arms are close to even in fundraising.
The National Republican Congressional Committee raised $50 million in the third quarter, brought in $250 million this cycle and started October with about $61 million.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has raised about $249 million and began October holding $55.7 million. Those funds are separate from the money supporting Paxton’s Senate bid.
A YouTube video titled “My FINAL 2026 Senate Map Prediction, One Week Till The Midterms” projects that Republicans will hold the Senate.
A Democratic majority, by contrast, could create new hurdles for presidential appointments and legislative priorities.
