If Iran’s Islamist regime collapses after more than four decades in power, a small group of familiar names is already being discussed as possible successors, according to experts watching the unrest closely.
One of the most prominent figures is Reza Pahlavi, the exiled crown prince and son of Iran’s last shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who was overthrown during the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Pahlavi, now 65, fled Iran as a teenager and has lived in the U.S. for decades, currently residing in Maryland while maintaining ties with the Iranian diaspora and U.S. officials.
Despite his long absence from the country, analysts say Pahlavi’s profile has grown as dissatisfaction with the Islamic Republic intensifies.
“Pahlavi is a complicated character, but without a doubt he has a certain following inside of the country,” former CIA officer Reuel Marc Gerecht told the New York Post.
Gerecht added that nostalgia for the pre-revolution era has increased as the current regime’s credibility erodes. He said the regime’s “charisma has cratered,” while Pahlavi’s standing has “grown, if not skyrocketed.”
Pahlavi recently called for nationwide protests on Jan. 8 and 9, drawing massive engagement online, including more than 3.2 million likes and 88 million views on Persian-language Instagram.
In a Washington Post op-ed published this week, Pahlavi said he does not seek to restore the monarchy but wants to oversee a democratic transition.
“I have therefore stepped forward to lead and serve in that capacity, not as a ruler in waiting, but as a steward of a national transition to democracy,” Pahlavi wrote.
Still, some experts question whether someone who has been away from Iran for so long could command enough support on the ground to govern, per the New York Post.
Another name circulating is former President Hassan Rouhani, who served from 2013 to 2021 and was known for advocating dialogue with the West.
Rouhani made history in 2013 when he held a direct phone call with then-President Barack Obama during negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program.
Iran expert Ali Reza Nourizadeh said Rouhani is now under intense scrutiny from the regime, which suspects he may be communicating with outside actors.
“They’re listening to his telephone. They are watching him,” Nourizadeh said, adding that authorities believe Americans are speaking with people inside Iran.
Another possible figure is Seyed Hossein Mousavian, a former diplomat who served as Iran’s ambassador to Germany and later worked on nuclear negotiations in the early 2000s.
Mousavian later held an academic position at Princeton University and is seen as a survivor within Iran’s political elite.
Andrew Apostolou of the Britain Israel Communications and Research Center described Mousavian as part of a group with a strong “survival instinct.”
Other analysts argue the next leader may not be a single individual at all but could emerge from Iran’s extensive security apparatus.
“It’s not going to be a person per se,” Iran scholar Alireza Nader said. “Ultimately, it’s forces on the ground.”
Nader warned that as long as the regime remains unified, it is likely to respond to unrest with extreme violence before relinquishing power.
