Tropical Storm Karina is strengthening over the eastern Pacific Ocean as forecasters monitor its path and the possibility that moisture from the system could eventually affect Southern California.
Karina had maximum sustained winds of approximately 50 mph early Friday and was moving northwest at about 13 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The storm was located more than 800 miles from the southern tip of Mexico’s Baja California Peninsula.
Forecasters expect Karina to continue strengthening as it travels across warm Pacific waters, potentially reaching hurricane status over the weekend.
Long-range computer models have attracted attention after some projections showed the tropical system eventually curving toward the US West Coast.
Such a scenario would be exceptionally rare for California, which has never recorded a confirmed hurricane landfall in the modern historical record.
However, officials have stressed that the possibility of a direct California strike remains highly uncertain.
The National Weather Service in San Diego said Friday that the current forecast keeps Karina well south of Southern California.
Moisture associated with the tropical system could nevertheless move northward early next week, increasing cloud cover and bringing a 20% to 30% chance of light precipitation to portions of Southern California.
The National Hurricane Center currently expects Karina to continue moving generally west-northwest over the coming days.
Swells generated by the strengthening storm are forecast to reach portions of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula over the weekend, potentially producing dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents.
California’s relatively cold coastal waters and atmospheric conditions make direct tropical cyclone strikes exceptionally uncommon because storms moving north generally weaken before reaching the state.
One of California’s most significant tropical events occurred in September 1939, when a tropical storm struck near Long Beach. The storm caused severe flooding and dozens of deaths across Southern California.
More recently, Hurricane Hilary generated widespread attention in August 2023 as it approached the region. Hilary weakened to a tropical storm before reaching California but still produced significant rainfall, flooding and other impacts, per Trending Politics.
Hurricane Nora also affected the region in 1997 after crossing northward from Mexico, bringing substantial rainfall to California and other parts of the Southwest.
Karina remains far from California, and its eventual track could change considerably as atmospheric steering conditions evolve.
Long-range “spaghetti models” display numerous potential paths based on different computer simulations. Large differences between those tracks indicate greater uncertainty about where a storm will ultimately travel.
For now, the more immediate threat from Karina remains around Baja California and southwestern Mexico, where increasingly rough seas and dangerous surf are expected as the system strengthens.
Forecasters will continue monitoring the storm over the coming days as it potentially reaches hurricane strength and its longer-range path becomes clearer.
