Americans could be in for a major financial surprise early next year as tax refunds are expected to surge thanks to President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said refund checks during the 2026 filing season will be “gigantic,” predicting many households will receive thousands of dollars more than usual.
Speaking on the All-In Podcast, Bessent explained that Trump’s tax cuts were made retroactive to the beginning of 2025, but most workers never adjusted their paycheck withholdings.
“I can see that we’re gonna have a gigantic refund year in the first quarter,” Bessent said. “Working Americans did not change their withholdings.”
As a result, Americans paid more taxes throughout the year than required under the new law, setting the stage for a massive refund when returns are filed.
Bessent said families could see refunds ranging from $1,000 to $2,000, depending on the number of earners in the household.
“I think households could see, depending on the number of workers, $1,000 to $2,000 refunds,” he said.
Independent analysts backed up Bessent’s projection, saying the numbers line up with what tax experts are already seeing, per the New York Post.
The nonpartisan Tax Foundation estimates the average tax refund for 2025 will be about $3,800, up sharply from $3,004 in 2023 and $3,052 last year.
Tax Foundation analyst Erica York said the increase is directly tied to Trump’s tax overhaul.
“When taxpayers file their 2025 tax returns in 2026, many will see larger refunds than in recent years,” York said.
She explained that the IRS never updated withholding tables after the bill passed, causing workers to overpay throughout the year.
“Instead of gradually receiving the benefit of the tax cuts through higher take-home pay, most taxpayers will receive it all at once,” York said.
Bessent added that workers are expected to adjust their withholdings in 2026, which would boost take-home pay on top of the large refunds.
“They will change their withholding schedule at the beginning of the year,” Bessent said. “They will get an automatic increase in real wages.”
Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act delivered sweeping tax relief by expanding the child tax credit, raising the standard deduction, increasing the SALT cap, and eliminating taxes on tips and overtime.
Additional provisions allowed deductions for auto loan interest, further lowering the tax burden for working Americans.
With refunds set to arrive just months before the 2026 midterms, the looming payout could deliver a powerful economic and political boost for the Trump administration.
