Millions of Americans could be on the verge of a massive financial boost as President Donald Trump’s economic team predicts what may become the largest tax refund season in U.S. history.
The stunning projection came as National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said refunds next year could reach unprecedented levels, with some families seeing checks worth thousands of dollars.
Hassett made the remarks during an appearance on FOX Business, where he claimed Americans will soon feel the impact of Trump’s economic agenda directly in their wallets.
“We are going to see the biggest refund cycle ever in the history of America,” Hassett said. “People are going to get massive refund checks. The numbers are striking.”
President Trump reinforced that message during a recent address, stating that families could save anywhere from $11,000 to $20,000 per year under his tax policies. Trump described the coming filing season as “the largest tax refund season of all time,” pointing to reforms embedded in the One Big Beautiful Bill signed earlier this year.
The optimism comes despite mixed public sentiment. A recent Fox News poll found that 44% of Americans feel they are falling behind financially, while nearly three-quarters rate the economy as “bad” or “not so good.” Hassett pushed back hard on that narrative.
He pointed to rising wages and easing inflation as evidence that the economy is improving faster than many realize. Hassett said typical workers saw wage growth of roughly 3.7 percent while core inflation cooled to around 1.6%, resulting in real wage growth of roughly two to two-and-a-half percent.
“Blue-collar workers have already seen almost a $2,000 raise this year after inflation,” Hassett said. “People are going to see it in their wallets.”
Hassett argued that many of the tax changes passed mid-year were not reflected in earlier filings, meaning their full impact will show up in upcoming refunds.
He compared the current trajectory to Trump’s first term, when growth hovered near 3% and inflation remained near 1%, according to the Daily Mail.
November’s inflation report, which came in lower than expected, was described by Hassett as “blockbuster,” reinforcing his belief that aggressive supply-side policies are driving prices down while wages rise.
“What’s happened is exactly what we predicted,” he said. “If you put the pedal to the metal on aggregate supply, you put downward pressure on prices.”
The IRS has already issued guidance on several provisions tied to the One Big Beautiful Bill that will affect tax years 2025 through 2028. Seniors who qualify will be able to deduct an additional $6,000 from taxable income, with the benefit phasing out for those earning over $75,000.
Other provisions include no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and deductions for car loan interest. Millions of tipped workers will be eligible for new deductions capped at $25,000, while overtime deductions will be capped at $12,500 for single filers and $25,000 for joint filers above certain income thresholds.
The IRS also warned taxpayers to carefully report overtime and tip income to avoid errors or audits, though employers will not face penalties in 2025 if standard requirements are met.
While some jurisdictions have opted out of certain provisions, Trump’s team insists the broader picture is clear. If the projections hold, millions of Americans could soon open their mailboxes to refund checks unlike anything seen before.
